Good Night (Hurricane) Irene!

picture from noaa.gov

So, yesterday I explored the topic of hype, honing in on hype in weather forecasting, and specifically Hurricane Irene. I laid out a “hype vs. outcome chart” and stated that I could talk myself into being OK with the hype about Hurricane Irene in general.

picture from philly.com

So now we enter the dangerous “hind-sight being 20/20” territory – which is dangerous in my opinion and I’ll go into that later. from what I’ve read, the storm weakened a little more than expected, the winds were not as high as expected or lasted as long as expected, the rain wasn’t quite as much as expected, and the storm moved faster than expected. Not to say that there wasn’t a lot of rain and wind, and not to say that there weren’t problems, or that there still won’t be…but…in terms of the hype vs. outcome chart… 

HURRICANE IRENE	Best Case Scenario (little damage)	Worst Case Scenario (massive damage)
Hype?	Inconvenience	Hopefully minimized because of the hype
No Hype?	No harm no foul	Are we mourning the unprepared?

…I’d say this Hurricane ended up in the section highlighted in green.

And now, there’s a small undercurrent (pun intended) of outrage over whether the storm was over-hyped or not. So, I have two generic questions in reaction to the outrage.

First, what was so important about last night that was missed because everyone hunkered down? There may be the one-off exceptions of an once-in-a-lifetime event that was postponed because of this; and by once-in-a-lifetime, I mean weddings and funerals, not sports events, dinners out, concerts, etc. And second, what was the real alternative? Everyone goes about their business, and they we have a storm that strengthened a little more than expected, the winds were higher than expected and lasted longer as expected, the rain was more than expected, and the storm moved slower than expected? And then we end up in the red-highlighted section of the chart?

We’re now second-guessing the hype of the storm because we’ve seen what it ended up being. Since we know now what we didn’t know then, some of us are saying that the hype should have been dialed back. The problem I have with this statement is this:  we DIDN’T know then what we know now. And there was no way of absolutely KNOWING then what we know now. Mother Nature is truly unpredictable, in the pure definition of that word. And although scientifically patterns have been studied and comparisons have been made, at the end of the day, no one can accurately, exactly, unmistakably predict the future. We can never KNOW then what we know NOW. 

And so, in hindsight, I stand by my comment from yesterday’s post:  with the memories of Hurricane Katrina still fresh in everyone’s minds, maybe this time, I am OK with the hype surrounding Hurricane Irene.

But…I will say this as a final note:  there are certain parts of weather forecasting where forecasters heavily imply that their experience, or their technology, in fact CAN accurately predict the future. And THAT I have a problem with. There is a certain weather forecaster in the Philly area, who wears a certain clip-on bow tie, who’s self-proclaimed nickname, used on air, is  the type of storm Irene was, who is guilty of this heavy implication. And I’m sure other cities have their one over-the-top weatherperson (I'm looking at you, Al Roker!), that in my opinion bring this kind of outrage onto themselves.     

What’s the answer? As with most things:  take what you hear, apply some thought, some common sense, filter out the extreme, and chances are everything will be OK.

Irene and Hype

picture from noaa.gov

picture from philly.com

As Hurricane Irene bears down on my hometown, I’m having this little internal debate going on in my head.  

Hype.

For whatever psychological reason, I abhor hype. I have an instant negative reaction to hype. I instinctively avoid anything that is hyped; the top movies, TV shows, and other entertainment events, as soon as they’re dubbed the “next big thing”, I instantly decide to not be involved. In the sports world, I turn off the radio whenever I start to hear a debate about whether this player truly is “the best ever”, or that team is a “must see”. I’m not sure why I’m this way, but that will have to be a topic for another day.  (I do have to admit the concept of Flavor Flav being the hype-man for Public Enemy is about the only hype topic that I actually enjoy.  It’s comedically ironic. But that too is another topic for another day.)

The news media (or the “newsmatainment industry” as my long-time friend and fellow blogger calls it, accurately so) is very guilty of hyping everything. The latest health scares, terrorism scares, product recalls, general advice, etc., all gets hyped many time to the point of near widespread hysteria.  The swine flu – remember that?  There are two things that bother me about this, if I ignore the fact that cynically speaking, I (and my fellow blogger) think this is all done for ratings, which equal advertising dollars, which equal increased profits. First, many things that are hyped I tend to believe are over-hyped, where just a simple statement of facts, or a simple transparency of opinion, could accurately get the message across that the topic-at-hand is one that should be paid attention to. But, second, when there is something that probably truly should be hyped, how many times does that issue get downplayed as “just another overblown issue?” The “boy who cried wolf” parable…

And weather reporting is right up there with some of the biggest hype machines out there. I have always been a weather geek (though for years in the closet…). In my lifetime, I have only been through two hurricanes:  Gloria in the mid-80s and Floyd in the late-90s. Gloria was widely hyped across the entire Philly area, so much so that schools in my hometown were closed that day ahead of the storm. (For those who don’t know, my hometown is about 100 miles inland of the Jersey Shore.) Gloria amounted to be nothing more than a rainy day…I don’t even think there was a lot of flooding.  Floyd was the opposite; that storm was not hyped at all, and it caught a lot of people off guard. My hometown was flooded out on three sides of town.  My office ended up closing at 2PM that day and fortunately my trip home was into the only non-flooded side of town. My neighbor wasn’t as lucky, however; she had to leave her car stranded at a flooded intersection and her car was severely damaged.  

So, I have mixed feelings about the hype surrounding Hurricane Irene. Fortunately, being in Western New York, I have an outsiders’ view of all this, but I have many friends and family that live right in the storm’s path.  As most people know, there have been many evacuations along the Atlantic Coast, but there are a few people who refuse to leave. A fire chief of one of the shore towns stated, "Units are driving around making the announcement [that] as soon as the storm truly hits, you're on your own.” And as much as I tend to be anti-hype, there is some times where maybe hype is warranted, and maybe this is one of them. If I think of this storm and the hype potential:

HURRICANE IRENE	Best Case Scenario (little damage)	Worst Case Scenario (massive damage)
Hype?	Inconvenience	Hopefully minimized because of the hype
No Hype?	No harm no foul	Are we mourning the unprepared?

So…with the memories of Hurricane Katrina still fresh in everyone’s minds, maybe this time, I am OK with the hype surrounding Hurricane Irene. If only I could get the cynical picture out of my mind…the picture where the profit ticker at the Weather Channel is spinning wildly upwards…

…and I do sincerely hope that my family, friends, and everyone else along the East Coast heed the warnings and more importantly, are safe and smart through whatever occurs with this storm.

Happy Birthday Betta Fish!

Blog:  So, did you do anything special for your birthday?

Fish:  Nah, not really. Same ol’ same ol’, really. Just swam around, did a couple of laps, took a nap behind the filter, you know how it is. Nobody sang…not that I would be able to hear it, and cake wouldn’t work too well underwater, ya know?

Blog:  So how was your first year of life?

Fish:  Good, good, can’t complain. I’m a pretty easy going fish, just keep me fed and I go about my business. I have my swimming spurts and my lazy periods. I get fed every morning, 5 pellets or so, and sometimes I get a little extra, especially when I get a visit from Michelle, I think her name is. She must be the stork or something; she delivered me in this little container before I moved into my current home. My pad is pretty nice – not too small, plenty of things to swim around.  The WORST is when the water gets a little stale, ya know? I start swimming around in my own filth…it doesn’t get too bad, but then SWOOP!  Next thing ya know, I’m in this little container, just swimming in a little circle! I get pissed! Once I tried to bust open the lid but all that did was give me a headache. And then I get dumped back in…every time I feel like it’s the end! I start swimming towards the light, against the flow, and the SPLOOSH…back home, clean water, and I guess my owner feels bad enough and I get an few extra pellets. Other than that, not too bad. Sometimes it’s hard to tell when it’s morning; I guess the people who run the building turn the air off at night and so my home is all dripping wet with condensation in the morning. Yes, I’m complaining about dripping wet. Deal. (smiles)

Blog:  How does your owner treat you?

Fish:  He’s a’ight…he’s cool, he treats me pretty well. [Ed. Note:  you didn’t think I was going to bash myself, did you?]  Actually, he cracks me up. Many a time, I’ll look over, and he’s sitting as his desk, muttering to himself and just shaking his head over and over and over again. It makes me dizzy, and I spend all day swimming in circles, ya know what I’m sayin’? And I don’t know what a jackass is, but he seems to use that word a lot.  Then he’ll just stare at me, like he wants to just hop in and hang out, right? He wouldn’t really fit though. HA! Jackass this, are you kidding me that…it makes me laugh my fins off. You know, LMFO! Sometimes he leaves me for longer than normal but a few of his friends make sure that I’m fed. 

Blog:  If you could wish one wish, what would that be?

Fish:  It’s been SOOOO long since I was in a fight…man, I miss the days. I wish another fish WOULD be dropped in here…it would be ON!! See, of course, I’m a fighter, not a lover. Who wants to see two fish lovin’ up on each other? How do we do it, anyway? But fighting? It’s in my gills…I’d be like Rocky vs. Clubber Lang…you know, pow pow and cue the music!

Blog:  Well, we’re out of time, any last words?

Fish:  Just want to give a shout-out to Nemo; he’s the one that really made this all possible. And boycott all carnival fish…they’re inhumane! Like little fish factories…let them free!! Remember kids, keep reaching for the stars and life is swam one stroke at a time.

Why Can't We...

(suggested music pairing: Why Can't We Be Friends - War)

…be honest with each other?

…be honest with ourselves?

…accept others’ flaws

…accept our own flaws?

…admit when we’re wrong?

…be humble when we’re right?

…help others when it’s needed?

…ask for help when it’s needed?

…admit that there’s nothing wrong with needing help?

…accept help with it’s offered?

…forgive others?

…forgive ourselves?

…be thankful for small things?

…keep wishing for big things?

…be more open-minded?

…be less closed-off?

…give others a break?

…give ourselves a break?

…give thanks?

…accept thanks?

…accept yesterday?

…live today?

…enable tomorrow?

…trust our instincts?

…stop to think twice?

…work hard?

…play harder?

…take deep breaths?

…give deep hugs?

…smile more?

…frown less?

…check-in?

…reach out?

…reach up?

…lift up?

…help up?

…all just get along?

Why can’t we?

Misery

Misery loves company. It’s contagious, it’s overwhelming, and it can take over like a fog, like a deep, dark, blinding fog. And there’s a lot of it to go around. And yes, we’re all guilty of spreading it from time to time, since we’ve all been stuck in if, suffering because of it, trapped by it.

And I KNOW I’m going to be guilty of oversimplifying things, but really, at the end of the day, isn’t being trapped by misery, succumbing to misery, really a choice? Even if it’s seemingly subconscious, most times when we sit and sigh and grumble and complain, it is because we fall victim to the easy and lazy approach of whining, instead of working on a change of perspective.

Because on one hand, there is a lot to be miserable about. I don’t know if I know a single person who doesn’t have a legit reason to be miserable, stressed, worried, unhappy. And I won’t attempt to compare or stack rank who has bigger issues, or more issues, but I’ll leave it as simple as – yes, we all have issues. Someday I’ll post about my opinion on the struggles of my generation and how life hasn’t quite turned out how we were told it would be if would just work hard, be loyal, and dream. Net pay is going down, the cost of things are going up, and most people I know, if they aren’t one paycheck away from being in a major situation, are two away. If they are getting a paycheck anyway. 

Birthday!

I just turned 39. (Legit 39, not In-Denial 39!) And with my birthday falling on a Tuesday, I kind of downplayed it a little bit.  I downplay a lot about myself, and I’m probably too humble in general, but I don’t like to call attention to myself. But as much as I downplayed my birthday, in reality, I feel that birthdays are important for several reasons.  

First and most importantly, a birthday should be a celebration that is all about you. A birthday is a chance to celebrate yourself, and a chance for others to celebrate you as well. It could be as simple as a celebration of surviving yet another year, or (to me, more importantly) a more in-depth celebration of who you are, what you represent, the positives you bring to this world and to those around you. And we all have those things that deserve to be celebrated.